 | This map shows some of the other major developments approved or in the pipeline for Loudoun County. Click here to download the a full-sized PDF of this graphic. |
The dust surrounding county leaders’ latest mixed-use development approval may have settled, but debate over the multimillion dollar Kincora development’s future – and the role of other developments in Loudoun County – is hardly over.
Skeptics worry a declining economy will leave Loudoun County with a lot of empty office space, leaving taxpayers to foot the bill for the public services needed to support new development.
However, supporters believe the financial market eventually will stabilize and Loudoun’s tax base will boom from what they believe is “smart growth” choices by county leaders.
Who will win the argument remains to be seen.
The biggest decision
Loudoun supervisors who voted July 12 on Kincora Village dubbed the action the biggest decision this board will ever make.
The development, which passed by a 5-4 vote, is a mixed-use property planned on 424 acres at routes 7 and 28 that will accompany a 5,500 seat minor league baseball stadium.
The village will include up to 2.7 million square feet of office space, as well as commercial retail space, two hotels, a performing arts center and 1,400 multifamily residential units. At least 228 of the residential units will be designated as affordable housing.
Kincora will come alive within the next six months, according to co-developer Michael Scott of Ashburn-based Norton Scott LLC.
The first phase will include the construction of the fire station and the completion of Pacific Boulevard. An affordable housing development, Windy Hill, is also on deck to be built.
The commercial retail and office space sites, however, are lacking committed lessees.
Scott said Kincora is working on several letters of intent or informal agreements with interested companies.
“We’ll build out as we get commitments,” Scott said.
He added that Loudoun’s economy is stronger than the economy in other parts of the nation, the county is still adding jobs and the area’s unemployment rate remains low.
Empty promises
Naysayers aren’t as optimistic about Kincora’s future.
“I have a motto which says promises don’t count, show me what you’ve actually done,” said Supervisor Jim Burton (I-Blue Ridge).
Burton doesn’t believe Kincora will ever be fully built, in turn leaving the county without a way to build Gloucester Parkway and Pacific Boulevard.
The developer, Norton Scott, committed $43 million in transportation improvements for the roads, including $24,538 for each of the 1,300 residential market-rate units.
The money would be placed into a fund as each planned residential unit is built.
It’s a promise, Burton believes, that will never come to fruition.
“I have heard these promises too many times before,” Burton said.
The supervisor pointed to two examples of his reason for disapproval – the Arcola Center and One Loudoun, two mixed-use developments that still sit empty years after their approval.
Economic downturn
When the Arcola Center – a mixed-use development planned for 400 acres near U.S. 50, Route 606 and Loudoun County Parkway – got the green light to build in December 2007, the developers initially were going to break ground on the project’s retail component immediately, said Arcola Center project manager Jimmy Roembke.
The center’s planned layout includes nearly 2 million square feet of office and commercial space, up to 1 million square feet of retail space and 80 acres of townhouses and apartments.
Those plans have yet to materialize.
“The market is a factor,” Roembke said.
The developers, Gaithersburg, Md.-based Buchanan Partners, could have started to build, but it wouldn’t have been feasible at the time. Within a few months of Arcola’s approval date, the economy hit the brakes, and so did construction on the development.
Now, however, there is hope the project will see the light.
Roembke said he thinks they will hopefully break ground on the Arcola Center before the end of 2010.
Still, not all of the county’s mixed-use projects got off to such a rocky start.
Across the county, the Lansdowne Town Center is close to being completed.
The center is home to nearly 150,000 square feet of retail and 40,000 square feet office as well as 207 single-family lots on 32.5 acres.
Nearly 70,000 square feet of commercial retail and office space are left to be built in Lansdowne, said Lansdowne’s developer, Hobie Mitchell.
The center had a hiccup last year during the down economy, he said, but consumer confidence grew and the location is doing well.
Lansdowne’s neighbor about five minutes to the west isn’t selling as robustly, but it is filling up.
Of the 60 available commercial spaces at the Village at Leesburg, only 22 have tenants. Still, of the Village’s 470,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space, 50 percent is leased, according to the development’s website. An additional 20 percent of the open space is under negotiation with national and regional retailers.
The right decision
Supporters of the Kincora Village, like Supervisor Stevens Miller (D-Dulles) say it’s not the job of county leaders to predict the economy’s future.
“Who are we to say who gets to succeed in Loudoun and who doesn’t,” Miller said. “We’re not here to protect commercial interests.”
Miller said he voted for Kincora Village based on the application before him and the developer’s willingness to work to meet residents’ and county leaders’ concerns.
“This applicant worked with the county for years to submit something we thought was superior,” Miller said.
The supervisor said a no-growth policy for Loudoun County is not good for residents.
Supervisors, he said, should look at each application as its own entity, and decide what would best maximize the county’s potential.
“If we just keep voting no on everything, you might as well tell every applicant that Loudoun County is not interested in their business,” he said.
Scott said he’s not worried about proposing a new mixed-use development in a down economy.
Kincora, he said, “absolutely” will reach full build-out, because of its location.
“The Dulles International Airport will continue to expand, the Metrorail will expand to Dulles and there will be several interchange completions, most notably Nokes Boulevard in the Route 28 corridor, that will benefit Kincora,” Scott said.
“We’ve always known that this is a project that’s going to have to sustain itself through economic cycles,” he said.
The majority on the board made a stupid, stupid short-sighted and destructive decision on Kincora. They settled for too little and gave away too much. Smart growth is not no growth; it is growth that is fiscally and environmentally and sociologically sustainable. Kincora is none of these. Except for Delgaudio, who one could expect to make such a stupid decision, none of the supervisors who voted for Kincora have any excuse. They all know better. Their vote was a betrayal of everything they have ever told Loudoun citizens that they stood for on land use policy. They ought to be thoroughly ashamed, but having seen them vote, it’s clear that they care nothing about being responsible to the citizens who voted them into office. They’ll leave office and we’ll be stuck with the tax bills for their mistakes. Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it.
Dear ZGB, or should I say Zero Population Growth. I “obviously” know the difference b/t smart growth and moratoriums. Smart Growth is just another method to restrict our freedoms and liberty. This so-called smart growth got us the very leap frogging you mention. You figure you got yours and now you don’t want any more people to come. Sounds like you want us to stop having children too.
Nothing is a “non starter.”. Not moratoriums, not slowing population growth, and certainly not retaining the character of this county for future generations to enjoy.
Lafleur:
A development moratorium would have to be enabled by the state Legislature for Loudoun to enact one (or face immediate legal challenge w/o legislation). Homebuilders association would not allow it to even get to a vote in the House, guaranteed, so that’s a non-starter.
Alby covered the demand/sustainability/affordability aspect wll. Loudoun is already unaffordable for many and that is why Clarke County and near WVa and MD counties are developing suburbia, because counties closer in to the DC core are trying to preserve the past in the wake of the demand to grow and develop. The leapfrog effect will continue, only making commutes worse, more car pollution, etc. Smart-growth is that which recognizes the reality and tries to make the best of the overall situation (that’s directed at ‘Smart Growth’, who obviously needs a lesson in what that means in comparison to moratorium).
Vineyards, farms, etc etc you cite - yes we need all that, but fighting to keep it in Loudoun will only create the leapfrog I mentioned. The one and only way to stop growth is curb the demand, and the first way to do that is curb job creation. Jobs = more residents = new homes built = more services required & built = overall new development = land development and loss of whatever used to be on that land (forest, farm, animal habitat, etc.). You really want to preserve rural Loudoun - curb population growth (ie babies). It all starts with procreation.
Ok, moratoriums. Let’s drive up prices even more. I guess I should be fine with that because I have my piece of property and no one should have that right either. That’s the result of smart growth and moratoriums. Well, let’s blame in on the farmers who decided to see their property. Hey, we should be happy there too because Uncle Sam gets a huge chunk of that profit. Come on. Growth has been happening since the founding of this country. I love it here, but I like having all the new amenities that follow the people. I don’t have to drive as far. If I find it too much, I’ll move.
J.Lafleur: I agree with everything you said, but the reality cannot sustain the dream. How do you explain to those future generations that you’ve preserved all of Loudoun from development, but in the process made it unaffordable for those future generates to live here?
Just because a wall goes up on development doesn’t mean the demand goes away. That demand for housing will just be translated into increased property value. A price tag that no future generation can afford when they leave Mom and Dad’s nest. What is gained when those children say, “I loved growing up in Loudoun County, but I just can’t afford to live here, so I’m moving to Charlestown, WV? Is that the county we want to leave those future generations?
We are a nation of 300 Million people. In 40 years, we’ll be a nation of 450 million. Those 140 million Americans have to live somewhere. If we restrict housing development we will cause property values to rise beyond the level at which anybody can afford. That will effect the teachers, fire fighters, and police who protect all of us. That will effect the next generation of kids who were born in Loudoun, but can’t live in Loudoun. And it will impact everybody who is living in Loudoun when its time to pay the tax man. Also, businesses won’t come to Loudoun because it will cost to much to operate a businesses and/or we won’t have the workforce to support businesses because the workers can’t live here. Who’s going to work at that gas station for a merger wage and commute from 50 miles away?
I’d love a world that you describe, but its just not sustainable.
Barbara:
The law is what we make it. If we want a moratorium, we tell the supervisors or get a bill passed and we have a moratorium. Nothing is impossible.
Smart Growth: I like it here, so why would I move to Napa? I moved here because I liked the rural and agricultural character, and the historic preservation. But growth keeps encroaching and that need not be the case. If you want to live in Fairfax, you should move there; don’t bring Fairfax subdivisions and overgrowth and traffic to us. There is plenty of affordable housing in Fairfax. We don’t need it here.
Alby: If I wanted to “harken back to a simple lifestyle” I would move to the midwest. I just want Loudoun, as beautiful and magnificent as it is geographically, economically, agriculturally and environmentally, to be protected as the jewel that it is for the nation. I want this historic area to be preserved for future generations. I would hate for the views we see of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the historical places we can now visit, to continue to be pock marked by subdivisions and malls. The nation needs agricultural enclaves to meet the needs of feeding cattle and the population. Loudoun participates in that. The nation needs vineyards and Loudoun has proven itself very productive in this effort as well. The equestrian community here is the most accomplished in the nation. Maintaining land and properties for that is essential. No one wants anything for free. We pay the exorbitant real estate taxes. We just want to reap the rewards.
A Rural economy of Corn, Cows, and Horses harkens back to an era of simple living. A romantic lifestyle that I wish everybody could enjoy. Who wouldn’t want a couple dozen acres, some farm animals, and crops to eat and/or sell at the market?
The reality is that people move to Loudoun because its cheaper than Fairfax. Others move to West Virginia because its cheaper than Loudoun. Most people are force to move because of economic reasons, not always choice. I doubt the majority said, “We sure love the Loudoun County Fair, lets move to Loudoun”. It was more like, “A house in Loudoun will cost us $300,000 and a house in Fairfax will cost $600,000, Hmmmm which should we choose?”.
Putting up restrictive growth policies to maintain the romance of yester year when the reality no longer supports it, is destructive to everybody. When land values rise, new residents will be restricted based on economic factors. Existing residents will suffer under crushing taxes because (a) their property is now worth millions and (b) there aren’t enough people to share the tax load. And given that most rural land in Loudoun is used for farming, the incomes generated from that land won’t be able to support the tax bill. All the while, thousands are forced to bypass the county to afford a place to live (ie: The Route 9 trek to WV).
A few decades down the road, those folks who wanted to keep the county rural are selling their land because they can no longer afford it. Developers snatch it up and start building homes, shopping centers, business districts, etc on it. Thus thwarting the attempts decades earlier to preserve a rural lifestyle.
As long as there is demand for land, halting growth is nearly impossible. There is a reason why Manhattan Island in New York City no longer has farms on it.
If you think Napa is so great, then move there. I bet you can’t afford to buy anything because the so-called “smart growth” drives up land values and forces out the middle-class. Look what it’s done here in Loudoun. How many people have moved to WV to buy affordable housing only to then drive through Loudoun for their job? Let owners sell their land to the highest bidder.
First of all, there is no such thing as a “moratorium on growth” in a by right state.
As for “reclaiming” properties, as previous posters have said, by all means, buy whatever you choose, raze and replant if you wish.
We may have a wide variety of people fulfilling niches in tax shelters overlaid on the handful who actually make the bulk of their living from farming, but it is not an economy of the scope and scale that can run the county.
It hasn’t been for years.
You will have a LOT to “reclaim” before it ever approaches the balance you seek.
(p.s.—we can wish to be Napa all we like. It doesn’t mean we have much of either the soils or the climate. Look at what that late frost did to the one vineyard the same week the owner got a big award. Sad.)
From where we stand, the rural economy out here is far, far from dead. In fact, it is vibrant and should be encouraged and facilitated. We could even reclaim properties to return to the count’s rural roots if we try. All the efforts of the citizens who do conservation easements, open space easements, and refuse to subdivide make this clear. A moratorium on growth would be a primary tool to keep this momentum towards argiculture going.
J. Lovegrove - “Our model should be Napa Valley in CA which has developed a sustainable rural economy. “
Its too late. The rural economy of Loudoun, is the economy of a bygone era. Farming and Livestock are scattered around the county in a patchwork, with no real political power.
The Blue Ridge and Catoctin districts are about the only seats of rural power that exists on the Board of Supervisors. The other 6 districts (Leesburg, Broad Run, Dulles, Potomac, Sugarland, and Sterling) are all Urban/Suburban districts that hold the power in the county.
If my memory serves me correct, the BoS back in the late 80s / early 90s, began the growth in the county. From those early days, the death of the rural economy began.
Youngstown lost the steel industry and Detroit suffers because of the car ingustry. So these cities have no relation to our situation in loudoun, which primarily relies on government for it’s economy, and I don’t see that going away soon. We have moved West’ but the growth keeps catching up! Our model should be Napa Valley in CA which has developed a sustainable rural economy.
J. Lovegrove - “I say we put a moratorium on growth indefinitely.”
Money talks. You are more than welcome to start buying up all the land and not selling it to developers to prevent it from being developed. Otherwise, growth will continue as long as the population expands and people have money in their pocket. Take away either, and the growth will stop and we’ll look like Detroit, MI in no time.
Moratorium on growth?! Then what? End up like Youngstown, Ohio? That population is declining along with the property values and jobs. Please, stop with destroying, “our rural heritage” excuse or move west.
What happened to the slow growth Board we voted in? Approving these developments increases and invites growth, more rather than less traffic, and further destruction of the rural, historic character of Loudoun. I say we put a moratorium on growth indefinitely. Loudoun is paying for these developments in so many ways; they need to stop.
Canonico is right, to date, One Loudoun is the type of development the County needs - it’s delivered road improvements, a school site that got built on, infrastructure improvements around the property, and increased taxes. If only all developments came w/ no negatives! But of course, they will eventually build, and then the negatives will come, along w/ the positives - jobs, taxes, shopping and some homes. If the WTC aspect of it really happens, then it is the type of site that the international businesses York is over trying to wooh in Europe would like to settle in. Kincora is not a ‘town center’ that can be compared to other ‘town centers’ in Loudoun, in that, the office part is going to be dominant, the retail really a minor part, and the sprinkling in of other stuff (perf. arts, the stadium, fire station, stream park). The article doesn’t touch on a lot of other developments either not complete or in this pipeline - the Belmont Corporate/office park thing, stretching from Claiborne to Belmont Ridge along 7 will drastically change how that area works and looks. There is office coming in at Ashburn Blvd east of the big church. University Center is still developing, helped by the interchange now. Commonwealth Center is approved literally across the street from One Loudoun, when or if it gets built, who knows.
Lest we forget - approvals are not guarantees of building. Just because something is in the pipeline, doesn’t mean it will ever get built. It’s just an entitlement to do so on that land. Just look at parcels on Waxpool near AOL, approved going on 20 years, still just weeds and trees, right in the heart of Ashburn, you’d think that would be the first place to get developed…so don’t say no to the new guy who maybe will actually build, just because the old guy can’t build his similar project. Clearly, the market (and stubborn land owners) dictate what and where gets developed, after the policy and zoning decisions are made.
Lou - I’d like to hear more from you explaining your statement: “Putting a project like Kincora in this location is not smart. It is the reason why you do a Comprehensive Plan in the first place.” That’s an awfully large, encompassing statement - do you mean, Kincora differed from the vision (use type) of the Comp Plan for the property, and that’s why it ‘isn’t smart’? I’d say the transportation portion of the plan supports the Kincora model (8-lane Rt. 7, 10-lane Rt. 28, Pacific parallel road, Gloucester and Russell Branch connections, Nokes Blvd interchange to centrally serve it). Or maybe you mean that the fiscal policies of the Plan weren’t met by Kincora (an in lieu commitment (the $30+ mil) to build roads instead of paying off the capital facilities impact for all other County services likes schools and parks, leaving the rest of the County to pay for these impacts) and thus the approval “wasn’t smart”. I need to hear some tangible examples of how the property could be smartly developed and in keeping with Plan policies before I can agree with you.
I like the growth because it adds to the employment base of the county and will diversify the workforce in the county. The only downside will be traffic.
Something will need to be done about Route 7 between the Loudoun/Fairfax line and Leesburg. This stretch of road will eventually be unable to handle the volume of traffic from all this development. Somebody should honestly start considering a rail line between Sterling and Leesburg. Otherwise the future of Route 7 will be 24/7 traffic jams.
All this article does is provide further proof as to why approving Kincora was a terrible decision.
Off Route 7 alone there will be four of these large, mixed-use projects. Village at Leesburg is the smallest, and the only one built out. It also appears to have plenty of space available and the apartment prices have dropped at least a few hundred dollars a month since opening.
I don’t propose “no-growth”, but smart growth should rule the day. Putting a project like Kincora in this location is not smart. It is the reason why you do a Comprehensive Plan in the first place. Not to mention the fact that there is so much development still in the pipe, that it is nearly impossible to make an well informed decision about approving more. They should have waited for One Loudoun to be built before approving another large development down the road. Instead, we continue to rely on guesses from the developer’s consultants on levels of service on roads, which seem to be wrong almost every time, and then have no avenue for correcting the mess…besides approving another bad project.
Great article!
What is the county paying for in regards to One Loudoun? Absolutely nothing1 In fact the County has benefited even though no buildings have been built. The developer completed a critical link of russell Branch Pkwy and donated a site which now has a school on it although no homes exist in One Loudoun. In addtion, the County has been collecting increased taxes based on the increased assesments since the property has been rezoned even thohg it is not generating the need for any county services!
This is a very good article. I am wondering if we are ever going to see One Loudoun, but we are sure paying for it.
Updated: Thirteen-year-old pedestrian hit crossing Route 7 near Dulles Town Center
UPDATE: Missing Leesburg man drowns in drainage pond
Leesburg high schools switch things around
Loudoun inmate dies after suffering massive stroke in prison
Two Loudoun County residents involved in $1.5 million mortgage scheme
