Within days the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors will make a decision which few can argue will shape the county in the 21st century – the decision whether to extend Metrorail service into Ashburn must be made by July 4.

Loudoun County remains the final piece of the funding puzzle. The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA), Fairfax County and the Commonwealth of Virginia are committed to financing Phase Two of the Dulles rail project.

While not official, four Loudoun supervisors are all but certain to vote in favor of laying Metro’s Silver Line to the Dulles International Airport and into the county. Chairman Scott York (R-At Large), Matt Letourneau (R-Dulles), Ralph Buona (R-Ashburn) and Shawn Williams (R-Broad Run) have consistently lobbied publicly for the approximately $5.5 billion project to move forward as planned.

Vocal anti-tax Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio (R-Sterling) can be viewed as the only certain “no” vote. Delgaudio’s recent headline-grabbing statements on rail include calling Metro “evil,” saying the project is a “pie in the sky” and likening working with MWAA to striking an agreement with rats.

Which leaves the final vote, set for a July 3 board meeting beginning at 9 a.m., hinging on four supervisors – Vice-Chair Janet Clarke (R-Blue Ridge), Geary Higgins (R-Catoctin), Ken Reid (R-Leesburg) and Suzanne Volpe (R-Algonkian). A yes vote from one of those four will advance the decades-in-the-making project.

Though Reid’s on record saying he won’t support the project in its current form, he has shown a slight opening for a change of course. He has said he wants the county’s funding mechanism in place before the vote in order to support it. With the board’s final finance work session scheduled for June 29, a substantial outline of how Loudoun will pay its estimated $260 million initial costs and $15 million to $20 million annual operational costs could be in place by the final vote.

Moreover, Leesburg Town Council, of which Reid used to be a member and often references, has passed a resolution supporting the project.

“No” votes from two western Loudoun supervisors, Higgins and Clarke, appear increasingly likely. On June 18 the two, along with Reid, signed off on a list of “opt in considerations.” The list argues for an extended deadline beyond July 4 – a date already 30 days past the original deadline – and more control over airport property and MWAA.

While the trio made clear the list wasn’t an ultimatum in exchange for an “opt-in” vote, their brazenness in presenting the proposal two weeks before the deadline exhibits serious qualms about rail into Loudoun. 

“I completely support extending Metro to Dulles Airport in Loudoun County,” Higgins stated in a letter to the editor published June 27 in the Times-Mirror. “However, I have long stated that I will not support funding the project on the backs of Loudoun’s homeowners who are already financially stretched with the highest real estate tax rates around.”

Supervisor Suzanne Volpe (R-Algonkian), an eastern Loudoun representative, is considered by some observers to be pro-rail supervisors’ best hope for the final yes vote. But she’s been remarkably tight-lipped about where her final vote will fall.

While even those supervisors most skeptical of the project have voiced Metro in Loudoun could be beneficial, the core question remains whether the benefit is worth the cost?

An option gaining the most traction is the creation of a specialized tax district around the proposed stations at Route 606 and Route 772 in Ashburn. A key to the proposed district, Williams said, is that it wouldn’t affect existing homes; instead, it would impose a set tax, likely 20 cents, on commercial properties in the area. There’s also the possibility the district could have a higher-taxed inner core, bounded by a 10 cent outer core.

“With the elimination of general fund money or a commercial and industrial countywide tax I am hopeful this finance mechanism will garner enough support to have a favorable vote on Tuesday,” said Williams, who introduced the special district.

Dulles rail advocates searching for the most encouraging words on the likelihood the project proceeds may find solace in comments from Chairman York.

The longest tenured member of the board and possessing a wealth of background on the project, York has repeatedly said he believes his board, in the end, will make the right decision. When he told a group of business leaders “the train’s heading in the right direction,” could he have been hinting at the project’s approval?

On July 3, the people of Loudoun find out when, or if, the tracks will be laid in Loudoun.