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Experts: Gas prices will slow growth in Loudoun
While gas prices are now leveling off after hovering around $4 a gallon for much of the summer, one prominent economist and two of Loudoun's most prolific developers still think high gas prices may slow growth in Loudoun.
Stephen Fuller, an economist at George Mason University and an expert on the region's housing market, said gas prices, which now average about $3.80 a gallon in Northern Virginia according to AAA, may cause people to think twice about living farther out from job centers in Washington, D.C., and Tysons Corner.
"Yes, I think high gas prices will make it difficult for Loudoun County's housing market to recover," he said. "It won't sabotage it, but it will lengthen it."
And if workers start foregoing the outer suburbs for urban areas, Fuller said, businesses may follow suit. "Companies want to be near their workforce," he said.
To much fanfare -- and to much angst for some local leaders -- Loudoun rocketed earlier this decade to the top of the nation's fastest-growing counties list.
However, much like the rest of the country, foreclosures eventually spiked and home sales plummeted, leaving many Loudoun homes stranded on the market for months on end.
In another sign of the stagnant housing market, the Board of Supervisors has seen only two residential rezoning applications so far this year and has not approved a single home.
Over the previous two years, supervisors gave the go-ahead to a total of 11,370 residences, according to Loudoun's Planning Department. Many of those homes have yet to be built.
"Our studies show that sales may suffer in western Loudoun [because of gas prices]," said Bill May, vice president of Miller and Smith, the developer behind Brambleton and One Loudoun, which is now rising at the intersection of Route 7 and the Loudoun County Parkway.
Despite the prediction, he said home-shopping "traffic" at closer-in Brambleton is increasing.
"We're still getting lots of buyers from Fairfax because prices there have not fallen enough," he said. "We think eastern Loudoun is still desirable."
Hobie Mitchel is the developer behind South Riding and Lansdowne.
Though mixed-use development is not a new concept, he thinks builders should look to town-center-style communities that cater to home buyers' desire to live where they shop, dine and work as a way to get people out of their cars.
"Lansdowne Town Center has been a huge success because people can walk to restaurants and stores," he said of one of his own projects. "It's just not about the house anymore. ... Those who don't consider this will suffer."
Contact the reporter at jjacks@timespapers.com
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